UK Economy Grows By 0.8%

ONS statistics published today show that Britain's economy grew by 0.8% between July and September of this year, that is the best performance since Q2 2010. The services sector accounted for the majority of the growth, itself growing by 0.7%.

It is encouraging to note that Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has said that the Bank will not rush to raise interest rates or withdraw support for banks.

Now if the government could only bring itself to simplify the tax system, and indeed lower taxes, we might be assured that this growth can be maintained!

Pre Election House Price Bubble On Its Way

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) House prices rose 0.4% in June compared to the previous month, the year on year rise now stands at 3.1% compared with 2.9% in May.

This increase outstrips price inflation (CPI) which was 2.9% in June.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, is quoted in the Telegraph:

"We now expect house prices to rise by at least 3pc over the rest of 2013 and to then increase by 7pc in 2014."

House price bubbles of course will benefit the government in the run up to the election, as people (rather foolishly, given that the rise is relative) feel better off when the house that they live in rises in value.

UK Economy Grows By 0.6%

The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

George Osborne tweeted the following reaction:

"GDP stats better than forecast.Britain's holding its nerve, we're sticking to our plan, the economy's on the mend.But still a long way to go"

However, as I always caution, when it comes to ONS statistics never trust them. They are always out of date and subject to revision.

In the meantime whilst people crack open a can of lager to celebrate the modest signs of economic recovery in the UK, let us not forget that China frets when growth bumps along at a "mere" 7%!

No Double Dipper

As sure as eggs are eggs, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised its figures yet again.

This time the revision brings some good news, it appears that Britain never had a double dip recession:

"GDP growth between Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 has been revised from a fall of 0.1% to flat, thereby removing the phenomenon of two consecutive quarters of negative growth."

As I have noted many times before it is extremely unwise to rely on figures provided by the ONS, they are always out of date and invariably wrong.

ONS Screw Up Again

In September 2012 I wrote the following about the unreliability of ONS data:

"As I have noted many times before it is extremely unwise to rely on figures provided by the ONS, they are always out of date and invariably wrong; eg in February this year inflation figures spiked partly because the ONS (as per usual) had been erroneously under reporting inflation (clothing) for several years, and the resulting correction caused a spike in inflation.

Instead of the government and the Bank of England relying on and using ONS figures to to try to manage the economy, they may as well rely on reading goat entrails as these would be more accurate, timely and easier to interpret!"

Here we are in May 2013, and yet again the ONS have been forced to revise their figures. It seems that Q1 construction figures reported by the ONS were wrong, and need to be revised upwards. As such the UK was not in recession in Q1 2013.

As per the Telegraph:

"The ONS now believes that output in the quarter contracted by 5pc, not the 5.4pc previously thought. In terms of levels of GDP, it has revised construction output for the quarter up by £108m to £25.273bn. 

Philip Shaw, UK economist at Investec, has calculated that an increase of just £70m in national output in the first three months of 2012 would cause growth to be revised from -0.1pc to 0.0pc.

All else being equal, the construction industry revisions would suggest that the economy did deliver just enough activity to escape the technical double dip recession."

As I noted above, it is extremely unwise to rely on figures provided by the ONS!

UK Avoids Triple Dipper

In a small ray of sunshine, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that Britain's economy grew by 0.3% in Q1 of this year; thus the UK has avoided entering its third technical recession by the skin of its teeth.

The 0.3% rate of growth even managed to be larger than the 0.1% predicted by economists.

However, before people break open the Bollinger, it should be remembered that 0.3% is not exactly "stellar" and that China is feeling very sorry for itself having "only" managed to grow by 7.7%!

However, as I always say, never rely on ONS statistics they are out of date and will be revised upwards/downwards in due course.

ONS Revises Its Figures Yet Again!

On July 25 I wrote the following:

"UK GDP has contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2012, thus bringing the UK into a double dip recession.

However, this figure needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, ONS figures are out of date and are invariably wrong."

In August I wrote the following:

"As predicted, it transpires that the ONS figures were of course wrong. Economia reports that the ONS has revised its figures upwards from -0.7% to -0.5%."

One month on and the hapless and hopeless Office for National Statistics (ONS) have yet again revised their figures upwards, this time to -0.4%.

As I have noted many times before it is extremely unwise to rely on figures provided by the ONS, they are always out of date and invariably wrong; eg in February this year inflation figures spiked partly because the ONS (as per usual) had been erroneously under reporting inflation (clothing) for several years, and the resulting correction caused a spike in inflation.

Instead of the government and the Bank of England relying on and using ONS figures to to try to manage the economy, they may as well rely on reading goat entrails as these would be more accurate, timely and easier to interpret!

Financial Sector Receives 36% of All Bonuses

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that the total level of bonus payments received across the whole economy, during the financial year April 2011 to March 2012 (2011/12), came to £37BN. This is an increase of 3% compared with 2010/11, and equates to an average of around £1,400 per employee in 2011/12.

Those of you who are wondering why you did not receive a £1.4K bonus will be "relieved" to learn that it hasn't got "lost in the post", but has in fact contributed to the higher than average bonuses paid to those working the in the finance and insurance industry who received a total of £13BN in bonuses. This accounts for 36% of all bonuses in 2011/12, even though the sector only accounts for 4% of all UK employees.

ONS Screws Up Again

On July 25 I wrote the following:

"UK GDP has contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2012, thus bringing the UK into a double dip recession.

However, this figure needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, ONS figures are out of date and are invariably wrong."

One month on and, as predicted, it transpires that the ONS figures were of course wrong. Economia reports that the ONS has revised its figures upwards from -0.7% to -0.5%.

As I have noted many times before it is extremely unwise to rely on figures provided by the ONS, they are always out of date and invariably wrong.

UK In Double Dip Recession

UK GDP has contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2012, thus bringing the UK into a double dip recession.

However, this figure needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, ONS figures are out of date and are invariably wrong.

Britain Back in Recession?

According to figures released by the ONS, the UK is back in recession.

However, as with all figures produced by the ONS, the data needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. ONS figures are notoriously unreliable and as with all previous figures they will be revised upwards in the coming weeks, thus taking Britain out of recession.

Oh The Irony - Panic Buying Saved Britain

In a twist of irony, it seems that the panic buying of petrol caused by the government mishandling of the tanker drivers' dispute may have helped pull Britain out of recession.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a 1.8% month-on-month increase in retail sales volumes and a 3.3% year-on-year rise. The increase was above economist forecasts, and were partly helped by a 4.9% increase in petrol purchases.