UK Economy Grows By 0.8%

ONS statistics published today show that Britain's economy grew by 0.8% between July and September of this year, that is the best performance since Q2 2010. The services sector accounted for the majority of the growth, itself growing by 0.7%.

It is encouraging to note that Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has said that the Bank will not rush to raise interest rates or withdraw support for banks.

Now if the government could only bring itself to simplify the tax system, and indeed lower taxes, we might be assured that this growth can be maintained!

Bank Rate and QE Unchanged

The Bank of England has left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and QE untouched.

Barclays £12.8BN Hole

Barclays has gone cap in hand to its shareholders today for £5.8BN via a rights issue, in order to help it plug a £12.8BN capital shortfall arising from the new Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) imposed safety buffer.

The Telegraph reports that rights issue will allow existing investors to buy one new share for every four they currently own at a price of 185p, a discount of 40% to they bank's closing share price yesterday. 

Barclays will also issue £2BN of bonds that are turned into shares or wiped out if the bank gets into trouble.

Additionally in its six months results for the first half of this year, Barclays has set aside £1.35BN against further PPI claims, bringing its total compensation fund to just under £4BN, and a further £650M for interest rate swap redress, increasing its provision to £1.5BN.

Barclays chief executive Antony Jenkins is quoted by the BBC, in a dig at the PRA, warns that plugging the hole will have a negative impact on the economy:

"It means Barclays will provide fewer financial transactions to big companies, life insurers and pension funds, inter alia, to help those giant institutions reduce their risks. And to be clear that will represent a tightening of credit for those customers, so there may be a negative economic impact."

Barclays share price is currently down 7% on the day.

Happy Canada Day

Mark Carney starts work today as Governor of the Bank of England, ironically it is also Canada Day!

The Dangers Posed By Rising Interest Rates

The Bank of England's Financial Stability reports arises a red flag about the dangers from a rise in interest rates.

The Executive Summary notes:

"In the near term, risks could crystallise if global long-term interest rates were to rise abruptly from current still historically low levels.."

Hidden away in the report itself, the Bank notes that:

"The impact of higher global interest rates on borrowers will depend on the cause of the increase....a significant cohort of UK borrowers could experience financial difficulties if interest rates were to rise during a period of subdued income growth.."

Will interest rates rise?

Sir Mervyn King, thinks not (not at least in the foreseeable future).

Farewell Sir Mervyn

Sir Mervyn King is giving evidence to the Commons Treasury committee for the last time as governor of the Bank of England.

During his valedictory appearance he hinted that Jane Austen will appear on future £10 notes, he also welcomed the responsibility for bank supervision being returned to the Bank of England.

He is no fan of austerity for countries with no other means of promoting growth, and noted that it had been a disaster for those countries; in the meantime QE in the UK, in his opinion, will continue to run for the foreseeable future as will the current low levels of interest rates.

Be Bold!

Mark Carney, the incoming Bank of England Governor, has warned that Europe could face a decade of stagnation unless it takes the kind of bold measures seen in Japan.

Carney is quoted by the Telegraph, whilst making his last speech as Governor of the Bank of Canada:

“Europe can draw lessons from Japan on the dangers of half measures... Europe remains in recession. Deep challenges persist in its financial system. Without sustained and significant reforms, a decade of stagnation threatens.”

His comments give more traction to the rumours that the ECB is considering negative interest rates.

Banks Trouser Taxpayers' Money

The Telegraph reports that banks drew down £4.36BN from the Bank of England's Funding for Lending Scheme in its first two months and increased net lending by £496M.

The scheme does not help firms access credit (it should be noted that banks are in fact tightening their lending criteria), it only makes credit cheaper to those successful in their loan applications.

Mark Carney Named As Governor of The Bank of England

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, has been named the new Governor of the Bank of England.

He will take over from Sir Mervyn King next June.

Bank of England Holds Rates

The Bank of England has held interest rates at 0.5%, as expected.

Bank of England Clueless

Unfortunately, it appears that according to former MPC member Danny Blanchflower:

"The MPC didn't know where the economy had been, didn't know where it was when they made the forecast, and had no clue where it was going and still doesn't."

The  most alarming question that arises from the above is that, if the Bank of England (which has been relatively proactive in trying to reboot the economy) is so clueless, what does that say about the ECB?

Bank of England Releases Libor Emails

The Bank of England has released further information and correspondence in relation to the BBA Libor Review in 2008.

As per the Bank of England's website:

"At the hearing on Tuesday 17 July, the Treasury Committee requested papers relevant to the Bank of England’s interaction with the US Federal Reserve and with the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Libor Review in 2008. To allow the Treasury Committee to see the full context, this submission contains all papers relevant to the BBA Review. It provides a brief commentary and timeline of the events around the BBA Review in 2008, together with the supporting documents.

In 2008, the Bank of England worked closely with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) and the Financial Services Authority to input into the BBA Review of the Libor system.  The Bank of England and other central banks were concerned to influence the outcome of the BBA Review. 

Because the Libor system was, and is, a private sector arrangement and was not subject to financial regulation, it was not appropriate for the public authorities to endorse or determine the outcome of the BBA Review. When the amended proposals were adopted in December 2008, the Bank was not aware of any dissenting views expressed by the official or private sectors.

In reading these documents, it is important to distinguish between three issues. First, allegations of wrongful behaviour by Libor panel banks. Second, concerns about the operation of the Libor process in times of market stress. Third, the need for any system based on self-reporting to be alert to the possibility of “accidental or deliberate misreporting”, as referred to in the Geithner memorandum.

The Geithner memorandum contains no allegation of wrongful behaviour and relates to the second and third of these issues. At no point did the FRBNY draw the attention of the Bank to evidence of wrongdoing in the setting of BBA Libor. Indeed, with the exception of the memorandum sent by Mr Geithner to the Bank in early June 2008, none of the other documents published on 13 June 2012 by the FRBNY had been shared with the Bank.

The attached timeline gives a detailed account of the interaction between the Bank and the Federal Reserve and the BBA.  The broad outline of events is as follows:

• From May 2008, the Bank of England encourages the BBA to conduct a global review of Libor and banks to engage with the review at a sufficiently senior level.  It also begins to discuss these issues with the FRBNY.

• The Bank considers the points in the Geithner memorandum and ensures that those points are taken on by the BBA.

•  The Bank and the Federal Reserve work closely together behind the scenes to influence the consultation paper issued by the BBA on 10 June 2008.

• The Bank also continues to work on influencing the outcomes after the consultation paper is published until the BBA publishes its final report on 18 December 2008." 

The relevant documents can be viewed here.

King Denies Fed Warning

In the understatement of the decade, Mervyn King (Governor of The Bank of England) has told the Treasury Committee that there needs to be change of culture at Barclays.

"Barclays has to create a new bank with a new culture to take it forward."

He also denied that the Fed had warned the Bank of England that Libor was being manipulated:

"If the Fed had regulatory concerns they would have shared that with the regulator, [not the Bank of England].

They didn't pass any information to us that Libor was being manipulated.

The Fed could have shared that with us and they did not, all we would have done was pass it on. The Fed is a regulator, we were not; the Fed asked us for advice on how to interact with the BBA."

This denial is rather odd given the following:

"Writing to the head of the Bank of England, among others, Geithner made six recommendations, which included eliminating incentives that could encourage banks to manipulate the rate and establishing a “credible reporting procedure.” 

Not least the fact that King responded and thanked him for his recommendations.

Notwithstanding that apparent conflict between what King said and reality, his statement that the Bank of England was not the regulator may well be technically correct given the appalling tripartite system set up by Brown. However, it surely had more than a passing interest in what was going on with the banking system and, now that it will have "beefed up" powers, most certainly has an even greater "interest".

LIEBORGATE The Oncoming Storm

The roll of distant thunder coming across the Atlantic has hit the shores of Britain.

The Washington Post reports that the Bank of England was warned by Timothy Geithner (then President of the Federal reserve bank of New York) in 2008 that Libor needed to be fixed:

"While president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Timothy F. Geithner pressed British regulators to reform the way a critical global benchmark called the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, is calculated, according to a June 1, 2008, e-mail obtained by The Washington Post.

Writing to the head of the Bank of England, among others, Geithner made six recommendations, which included eliminating incentives that could encourage banks to manipulate the rate and establishing a “credible reporting procedure.”

'We would welcome a chance to discuss these and would be grateful if you would give us some sense of what changes are possible,' Geithner wrote."

Here is a link to a copy of the email and the Bak of England's response: Geithner email.

The New York Fed is set to release a treasure trove of documents Friday morning (EST) detailing its response to concerns raised as early as 2007 about Libor, which helps set the standard for $10 trillion worth of corporate bonds, credit cards, mortgages and other loans around the world.

The storm is coming, the Bank of England and others had best batten down the hatches!

Bank of England Increases QE £50BN

The Bank of England has left interest rates unchanged. However, it has increased quantitative easing by £50BN over the next four months.

The rationale for turning on the printing presses again being the persistent lack of economic growth, slowing export markets and weak business indicators.

Interest Rates Under Review

The MPC has placed its interest rate of 0.5% "under review", as per the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 6 & 7 June 2012.

The reason for the "under review" status being the ongoing deterioration of the economic situation in Europe, and "weaker economic data from the United States and emerging economies".

"Overall, the Committee judged that, at the present time, a further reduction in Bank Rate would not have any advantages over an expansion of the asset purchase programme, though it would keep the position under review."

This means that it is highly likely that rates will be reduced in the very near future.

Whither Project Merlin? - Osborne's Maxed Out Plan A

Kudos to Mervyn King and George Osborne for gamely trying to shore up the British economy, against the oncoming Eurozone tsunami, with a £100BN support programme.

The FT reports that:

"the chancellor told a City audience on Thursday night that he was working with Sir Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, to “deploy new firepower” amid fears that turmoil in the Eurozone could lead to a severe credit crunch and higher interest rates in Britain.

Mr Osborne’s aides spoke of a “maxing out of Plan A” – taking advantage of the country’s record of fiscal discipline and credibility with the markets to unleash an aggressive monetary policy offering cheaper loans to businesses and households."

The markets have reacted favourably (as they always do) to "hopeful" news.

This is all very well, if one could trust the banks to lend the money on to companies and individuals. However, all that the banks will do it use the £100BN to shore up their own balance sheets.

Not one penny of this will reach the business or individuals who need it, and would be the engines of growth for the British economy.

It would be better of Osborne took the £100BN and simply dropped it from a helicopter over the UK, that way he could be sure that it will have some positive effect on the economy.

Am I being too cynical?

I don't think so, have you all forgotten the hopes and hype wrt Project Merlin?

Whatever happened to that then?

Inflation Down

For the first time in this Parliament, CPI inflation has fallen from 3.5% in March to 3% in April. For the record, RPI inflation fell from 3.6% to 3.5%.

This also means that it is the first time the George Osborne has not received a letter from the Governor of the Bank of England, to explain why the inflation target has been missed. An open letter is triggered if the CPI rate remains above 3% or below 1% for three months in a row.

Drinks all round!

Major Problems Ahead

The head of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has said today that the Euro crisis is likely to get worse and that the UK and Bank of England are developing "contingency plans" to be implemented should the crisis spiral out of control.

He is quoted by Bloomberg:

"There are major problems ahead.

There are major credit losses to be realized. Whatever happens there will be difficulties ahead that will undoubtedly affect us."

Tin hats everyone!

King Rewrites History

Sir Mervyn King, Governor of The Bank of England, has stirred up a hornets nest after his recent BBC radio lecture in which he rewrote history and his/the Bank's role in the financial crisis.

Amongst other things, King said that the Bank would be very happy to co-operate with another inquiry into the collapse of Northern Rock (the bank that the Bank of England refused to bailout).

This willingness to co-operate rather took the breath away of Andew Tyrie, chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, who said that the Bank "should get on with it at the first available opportunity".

Others on the Select Committee expressed astonishment at the Governor's comments, given that the Committee has asked the Bank on numerous occasions to co-operate with an inquiry only to have their requests refused. The Bank remains the only member of the tri-partite system not to have published a review into its role in the crisis.