Autumn Statement 2013

Today is Autumn Statement day, when the Chancellor of the Exchequer (George Osborne) outlines spending plans and related matters for the coming years.

By happenstance, Iain Duncan Smith has slipped out a statement that the Universal Credit programme may not meet its 2017 deadline. Ironically, in September, IDS had told MPs that the 2017 deadline remained in place.

UK Economy Grows By 0.6%

The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

George Osborne tweeted the following reaction:

"GDP stats better than forecast.Britain's holding its nerve, we're sticking to our plan, the economy's on the mend.But still a long way to go"

However, as I always caution, when it comes to ONS statistics never trust them. They are always out of date and subject to revision.

In the meantime whilst people crack open a can of lager to celebrate the modest signs of economic recovery in the UK, let us not forget that China frets when growth bumps along at a "mere" 7%!

£11.5BN Cuts

The chancellor is to unveil £11.5BN of cuts for 2015/16 to help reduce the deficit.

Local government is expected to be hardest hit.

Watch Osborne's speech live at 12:30 here.

Osborne Encounters Resistance

Poor old George Osborne appears to be encountering some resistance form other ministers to his plans to slash spending by £11.5BN.

As yet, according to the FT, his "colleagues" in government have only come up with £2.5BN in cuts; with some ministers failing to provide Osborne with the list of 10% in proposed departmental cuts he ordered before last month’s deadline.

Could it be that they don't think that he will still be in office in a year, and that as such he can "safely" be ignored?

As with any business, there will always be resistance to cuts. However, also as with any business, if the person who is demanding them is deemed to be "on his way out" the cuts will never materialise.

Budget 2013 Key Points

The Chancellor halved his growth forecast in today's Budget. All very well maybe, but no one really believes these forecasts in the first place; therefore halving a figure that no one believes in to another figure that no one believes in is a futile exercise.

Rather amusingly the Evening Standard had to apologise after it published details of the Budget online before George Osborne delivered his statement. When I was a young lad, breach of Budget purdah was a "hanging" offence; now breach of purdah is de rigueur!

Here are the key points, courtesy of the BBC:

FUEL, ALCOHOL AND CIGARETTES

September's 3p fuel duty rise scrapped
April's 3p rise in beer duty scrapped. Instead, beer duty to be cut by 1p
Annual inflation +2% rise in beer duty to be ended but "duty escalator" to remain in place for wine, cider and spirits
Cigarette duties unchanged - continuing to rise by inflation +5%

INCOME TAX

Limit at which people start paying tax to be raised to £10,000 in 2014 - a year earlier than planned

HOUSING

Shared equity schemes extended, with interest-free loans for homebuyers up to 20% of value of new-build properties

Bank guarantees to underpin £130bn of new mortgage lending for three years from 2014

STATE OF THE ECONOMY

Growth forecast for 2013 halved to 0.6% d from 1.2% in December
Office for Budget Responsibility watchdog predicts UK will escape recession this year
Growth predicted to be 1.8% in 2014; 2.3% in 2015; 2.7% in 2016 and 2.8% in 2017.

BORROWING

Borrowing of £114bn this year, up from previous £108bn forecast
Borrowing set to fall to £108bn, £97bn and £87bn, £61bn and £42bn in subsequent years
Borrowing as share of GDP to fall from 7.4% in 2013-14 to 5% in 2015-16
Debt as a share of GDP to increase from 75.9% in 2012-13 to 85.6% in 2016-17

SPENDING AND PAY

Most government departments to see budgets cut by 1% in each of next two years
Schools and NHS will be protected
£11.5bn in further cuts earmarked in 2015-16 Spending Review, up from £10bn
1% cap on public sector pay extended to 2015-16 and limits on "progression" pay rises in the sector
Military to be exempt from "progression" pay limits.
Proceeds of Libor banking fines to be given to good military causes, including Combat Stress charity

JOBS

600,000 more jobs expected this year than at same time last year
Claimant count to fall by 60,000

TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURE

An extra £15bn for new road, rail and construction projects by 2020, starting with £3bn in 2015-16

HELP FOR BUSINESS

Corporation tax to be cut by 1% to 20% in 2015
New employment allowance to cut National Insurance bills cut by £2,000 for every firm
450,000 small firms will pay no employer National Insurance
Government procurement from small firms to rise fivefold
Tax relief for investment in social enterprises
Stamp duty axed on shares traded on growth markets like Aim.
Tax avoidance and evasion measures, including agreements with Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey, aimed at recouping £3bn in unpaid taxes

ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Tax incentives for ultra low-emission cars
Pottery industry in Midlands to be exempt from climate change levy
Tax allowances for investment in shale gas

INFLATION

2% Bank of England inflation target to stay in place
Bank remit to be changed to focus on growth as well as inflation

PENSIONERS

Single flat-rate pension of £144 a week brought forward a year to 2016
Cap on social care costs confirmed

FAMILIES

20% tax relief on childcare up to £6,000 per child from 2015
£5,000 payments for those who lost money on Equitable Life policies bought before 1992. Extra money for those on low incomes

Follow The Budget Live

Live Coverage of George Osborne's Autumn Statement

Osborne Rearranges The Deckchairs On The Titanic

George Osborne is set to deliver his Autumn Statement 2012 today at 12.30pm, in which he will rearrange the deckchairs.

Whither Project Merlin? - Osborne's Maxed Out Plan A

Kudos to Mervyn King and George Osborne for gamely trying to shore up the British economy, against the oncoming Eurozone tsunami, with a £100BN support programme.

The FT reports that:

"the chancellor told a City audience on Thursday night that he was working with Sir Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, to “deploy new firepower” amid fears that turmoil in the Eurozone could lead to a severe credit crunch and higher interest rates in Britain.

Mr Osborne’s aides spoke of a “maxing out of Plan A” – taking advantage of the country’s record of fiscal discipline and credibility with the markets to unleash an aggressive monetary policy offering cheaper loans to businesses and households."

The markets have reacted favourably (as they always do) to "hopeful" news.

This is all very well, if one could trust the banks to lend the money on to companies and individuals. However, all that the banks will do it use the £100BN to shore up their own balance sheets.

Not one penny of this will reach the business or individuals who need it, and would be the engines of growth for the British economy.

It would be better of Osborne took the £100BN and simply dropped it from a helicopter over the UK, that way he could be sure that it will have some positive effect on the economy.

Am I being too cynical?

I don't think so, have you all forgotten the hopes and hype wrt Project Merlin?

Whatever happened to that then?

The Budget - Summary and Details

Here is a link to the details of today's Budget as per HMT:

Budget

Whilst here are the headlines of today's budget (source):

Tax changes

The personal allowance will rise to £9,205 in April 2013

• The top rate of Income Tax will reduce from 50 per cent to 45 per cent in April 2013.
• The Income Tax personal allowance (the amount you can earn before you pay tax) will increase to £9,205 in April 2013.
• Age related allowances will be frozen from April 2013, moving towards a simpler, single personal allowance for everyone regardless of age.
• From 2014-15, taxpayers will receive a new Personal Tax Statement, telling them how much Income Tax and National Insurance they have paid and what their money is being spent on.
• Income Tax reliefs that aren't already capped will be capped at £50,000 or 25 per cent of income, whichever is higher.
• The main rate of Corporation Tax will reduce by an additional 1 per cent from April 2012.

The new Income Tax rates for the 2012-13 tax year were published in December 2011 and will start on 6 April 2012.

• Budget 2012 - New Income Tax rates 2012-13

Benefits

Child Benefit will be withdrawn for households where someone has an income of more than £50,000

• Child Benefit will be withdrawn when someone in a household has an income of more than £50,000. The benefit will be withdrawn gradually; 1 per cent of Child Benefit for every extra £100 earned over £50,000. Only those with an income of more than £60,000 will lose all their Child Benefit.
• Servicemen and women serving in operations overseas will receive 100 per cent relief on an average Council Tax bill.

The new rates for the State Pension and benefits for 2012-13 were published in December. These rates start in April 2012.

• Budget 2012 - new pension and benefit rates

Alcohol and tobacco

• Duty rates for alcohol will rise on 26 March 2012 at the same rate as last year - two per cent above inflation. The government will shortly be publishing an Alcohol Strategy to address alcohol abuse.
• Duty on tobacco will rise by five per cent above inflation - a rise of 37p on a pack of cigarettes. This will come into force at 6.00 pm on 21 March 2012.

Motoring and travel

• Vehicle Excise Duty (car tax) will increase by inflation only.
• The government will take forward many of the recommendations from Alan Cook’s independent review of the road network, including developing a national roads strategy.
• The government will also consider new ownership and financing models for the national road network.

Housing

• A new Stamp Duty Land Tax rate of 7 per cent will be introduced for residential properties over £2 million from 22 March 2012.
• The Stamp Duty Land Tax charge applied to residential properties over £2 million bought into a corporate envelope will be increased to 15 per cent from 21 March 2012. There will be a consultation on the introduction of an annual charge on £2 million residential properties which are already contained in corporate envelopes.
• A New Buy Scheme was introduced last week to help those who cannot afford the larger deposits that some mortgage companies demand.
• The government will fund an extra £100 million of improvements in the accommodation of the armed forces and their families.

Pensions

• The current system, where pensioners can receive an additional State Pension as well as their basic pension, will be simplified. This means that future pensioners will receive only one single-tier pension, based on contributions. This is currently estimated at around £140.
• There will be an automatic review of the State Pension age to ensure it keeps pace with increases in life expectancy. Details of how this will work will be published this summer.
• There will be no changes to pension relief.

Employment

• The National Minimum Wage will increase by less than inflation, as recommended by the Low Pay Commission, to support employers and help protect jobs.
• Sunday trading laws will be relaxed during the Olympics and Paralympics.
• National Minimum Wage rates to rise in October

Digital economy

• The government has committed to providing 90 per cent of the population with access to superfast broadband.
• There will be improved mobile phone coverage for rural areas and along key roads.
• Belfast, Birmingham, Bradford, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Leeds, London, Manchester and Newcastle are to become broadband super-connected cities, as part of the £100 million investment announced at the 2011 Autumn Statement.
• £50 million will be used to fund a second wave of smaller cities.

The economy

The UK economy is predicted to grow by 0.8 per cent this year, and 2 per cent in 2013

• The independent Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecasts for UK growth and inflation are broadly unchanged from its November forecasts.
• Growth: its growth forecast for the UK this year is 0.8 per cent; they forecast growth of 2 per cent in 2013, 2.7 per cent in 2014, and 3 per cent in 2015 and 2016.
• Inflation: expected to fall from 2.8 per cent this year to 1.9 per cent next year, and then 2 per cent by 2016
• The OBR’s forecast for the unemployment rate is unchanged from last Autumn - the rate is expected to peak this year at 8.7 per cent and fall to 6.3 per cent by 2016.
• Borrowing: public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to total £126 billion this year, falling to £120 billion next year. It is then forecast to to fall to £98 billion in 2013-14, reaching £21 billion by 2016-17.

The Budget

Today, in case you were unaware, is Budget Day.

It is likely to be a damp squib, as most (if not all) of the headline measures/changes etc have already been leaked.

This is without doubt the most leaked budget in history.

When I was a lad people would have been flogged for leaking budget details (it is after all price sensitive information), how times change!

Hector Sants Resigns Again

Hector Sants (CEO of the failed, and soon to be defunct, FSA) has finally resigned from office.

He had resigned once before in 2010, and was due to leave in the summer of that year. However, he was persuaded by George Osborne to stay on to become deputy governor of a new regulator due to "go live" in 2013:

"As predicted on this site, George Osborne has sounded the death knell of the ineffectual and inept FSA (ironically, despite its lousy performance, FSA staff were paid nearly £22M in bonuses last year).

Osborne has stated that it will cease to exist in its current form, and a "Consumer Protection and Markets Authority" will be created.

Hector Sants, the CEO of the FSA, will stay to become the new deputy governor and chief executive of the new regulator. That announcement is to be treated with a degree of scepticism. The new body will be considerably less powerful than the FSA, and it is likely that as soon as the transition has occurred Sants will depart (as this in effect a demotion)."

As noted, this was in effect a demotion, as the Bank of England's role is to be considerably enhanced. Therefore it is not surprising that Sants has decided to step down this summer, his role in the new Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) body will be taken on by the Bank of England's Andrew Bailey.

Despite persuading him to stay on in 2010, Osborne doesn't seem to have offered official public thanks to Sants for his work.