Greece's Budget Deficit Falls

Apparently, if statistics from eurostat can be believed, Greece's budget deficit for 2012 has been revised down from 10% of GDP to 9%

However, before popping the champagne corks, it should be remembered that debt stands at 156.9% of GDP.

Eurozone Out Of Recession?

The media and Europhiles are hugely excited at the headlines today that proclaim that the eurozone is out of recession.

As per the BBC, the eurozone has emerged from recession after a record 18 months of economic contraction.

GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2013, slightly ahead of forecasts. Germany and France dragged the eurozone out of the recession with growth of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. However, Spain experienced contraction of 0.1% on the quarter, and Italy and the Netherlands both saw output drop by 0.2%.

The eurozone cannot survive in its present form where the rich Northern countries prosper whilst the poor Southern ones collapse, just ask the good people of Greece (with close to 65% youth unemployment) if they feel that they are now out of the recession.

No Double Dipper

As sure as eggs are eggs, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised its figures yet again.

This time the revision brings some good news, it appears that Britain never had a double dip recession:

"GDP growth between Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 has been revised from a fall of 0.1% to flat, thereby removing the phenomenon of two consecutive quarters of negative growth."

As I have noted many times before it is extremely unwise to rely on figures provided by the ONS, they are always out of date and invariably wrong.

Negative Interest rates

It seems that the ECB is considering negative deposit rates, ie charging banks for their deposits.

The purpose of such a move?

To encourage/force banks to lend money in order to boost the flagging Eurozone economy.

Will it work?

No one knows!

ONS Screw Up Again

In September 2012 I wrote the following about the unreliability of ONS data:

"As I have noted many times before it is extremely unwise to rely on figures provided by the ONS, they are always out of date and invariably wrong; eg in February this year inflation figures spiked partly because the ONS (as per usual) had been erroneously under reporting inflation (clothing) for several years, and the resulting correction caused a spike in inflation.

Instead of the government and the Bank of England relying on and using ONS figures to to try to manage the economy, they may as well rely on reading goat entrails as these would be more accurate, timely and easier to interpret!"

Here we are in May 2013, and yet again the ONS have been forced to revise their figures. It seems that Q1 construction figures reported by the ONS were wrong, and need to be revised upwards. As such the UK was not in recession in Q1 2013.

As per the Telegraph:

"The ONS now believes that output in the quarter contracted by 5pc, not the 5.4pc previously thought. In terms of levels of GDP, it has revised construction output for the quarter up by £108m to £25.273bn. 

Philip Shaw, UK economist at Investec, has calculated that an increase of just £70m in national output in the first three months of 2012 would cause growth to be revised from -0.1pc to 0.0pc.

All else being equal, the construction industry revisions would suggest that the economy did deliver just enough activity to escape the technical double dip recession."

As I noted above, it is extremely unwise to rely on figures provided by the ONS!

Eurozone Unemployment Hits New High

Unsurprisingly, given that monetary policy within the Eurozone is being conducted by unelected and unaccountable anti inflation zealots from the ECB, unemployment levels within the Eurozone hit a record high of 12.1% in March.

The highest increases were registered in Greece (2 1.5% to 27.2% between January 2012 and January 2013), Cyprus (10.7% to 14. 2 %), Spain (24.1% to 26.7%) and Portugal (15.1% to 17.5%) .

Eurostat estimates that there are over 19 million people unemployed within the Eurozone, 3.6 million of them being under 25.

This level of unemployment is not sustainable and is a threat to democracy.

Cyprus Parliament Votes

Today the Cyprus parliament will be finally given an opportunity to vote on the bailout plan imposed on it by the IMF/EU.

Pundits expect that the bill will pass.

However, if it doesn't, the EU/IMF will simply delay the bailout until the parliament votes in favour of it.

"Democracy" in action, the EU way!

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Decreases

Unsurprisingly confidence in the Eurozone fell for a second straight month in April.

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) decreased by 1.5 points in the euro area (to 88.6) according to the European Commission's latest Business and Consumer Survey results.

"In the euro area, the ESI's decline was broad - based across all business sectors, with services witnessing the sharpest drop, while consumer confidence went up. Among the five largest euro area economies,  economic sentiment worsened significantly in Germany (- 2.3) , France (- 2.0) and Italy (- 1.9), while remaining broadly stable in the Netherlands (+0.2 ) and improving in Spain (+ 0. 9). 

The decrease in industry confidence ( - 1. 5 ) resulted from a much more negative assessment of the current level of overall order books and lower production expectations. Managers' assessment of stocks of finished products remained virtually unchanged. The past production and, to a lesser extent, the current level of export order books, which are not included in the confidence indicator, were also assessed more negatively . 

Services confidence dropped abruptly by 4.1 percentage points, driven by significantly worsened assessments of the business situation and demand over the past three months. Demand expectations deteriorated to a lesser extent. 

Consumer confidence increased by 1.2 points, based on a marked easing of unemployment expectations and slightly better expectations concerning households' future financial situation, the future general economic situation and savings over the next 12 months. Retail trade confidence decreased by one point, driven by worsened business expectations and views on the adequacy of current stocks. The assessment of the present business situation worsened only slightly. Also construction confidence decreased (- 1.3), based on weaker employment expectations and assessment s of order books. 

Financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) improved markedly (+ 5.0), fuelled by considerably better assessments of the business situation and demand over the past three months. Demand expectations improved slightly. Employment plans were revised downwards across business sectors, contrasting with the easing of consumers' unemployment expectations. Selling price expectations decreased in industry, retail trade and construction, and increased marginally in services."

According to the Telegraph, "experts" had forecast a decline to 89.3.

The pressure is now on the ECB to cut rates this Thursday. However, given that the ECB is dogmatically sticking to its anti inflation monetary policy, at the cost of millions of jobs in the Eurozone, I do not expect to see any cut in rates.

The Pain In Spain

Unsurprisingly Spain has had to delay reaching it budget deficit reduction targets by two years, to 2016.

Additionally, it foresees its unemployment rate as being 27.1% in 2013 and 26.7% in 2014.

At what stage will the Europhiles wake up and realise that levels of unemployment such as these are not sustainable in a Western democracy without there being serious blowback?

The above figures are of course subject to revision!

UK Avoids Triple Dipper

In a small ray of sunshine, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that Britain's economy grew by 0.3% in Q1 of this year; thus the UK has avoided entering its third technical recession by the skin of its teeth.

The 0.3% rate of growth even managed to be larger than the 0.1% predicted by economists.

However, before people break open the Bollinger, it should be remembered that 0.3% is not exactly "stellar" and that China is feeling very sorry for itself having "only" managed to grow by 7.7%!

However, as I always say, never rely on ONS statistics they are out of date and will be revised upwards/downwards in due course.

Eurozone To Remain In Recession

Despite, at the end of last, year claiming (albeit improbably) that the Eurozone would return to growth this year the European Commission  has finally been forced to face reality and has announced that in the return to growth will not occur until next year.

No surprises there then!

The European Commission has stated in its report, optimistically/foolishly entitled "Winter forecast 2013 - The EU economy: gradually overcoming headwinds", that the Eurozone will contract by 0.3% this year, but will grow by 1.4% next year.

Amusingly it predicts growth for 2014 within the European Union as whole as being 1.6%, ie 0.2% better than within the Eurozone!

That estimate is of course subject to revision!

UK Economy Flatlines

The UK economy shrank by 0.3% in the final three months of last year, and posted zero growth for the year as a whole.

Many now expect the UK to go into a triple dip recession.

Happy Fiscal Cliff Day

Good luck to the people of the world relying on American politicians not tipping the USA back into recession today!

Eurozone Languishes In Recession

EU GDP figures have confirmed that the Eurozone is languishing in recession for the second time in four years.

GDP in the Eurozone fell by 0.1% in Q3, having fallen 0.2% in the previous three months.

Meanwhile in Greece the unemployment rate in September rose to 26%, up from 25.3% in August (in September 2011 it was 18.9%).

Not all was doom and gloom, Italy continues to provide "comic relief" in the shape of ex Prime Minster Berlusconi's antics. He is now openly speculating that may well stand for Prime Minister for the fifth time in next March's elections.
 
Market rumours also abound that Mario Monti will resign as Prime Minister today.

Well done Italy for trying to provide a much need distraction form the financial chaos, sadly though this merely adds to it!

Eurozone Driven Into Recession Again

The Eurozone has fallen back into recession again.

As per Eurostat:

"GDP fell by 0.1% in the euro area1 (EA17) and increased by 0.1% in the EU271 during the third quarter of 2012, compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the second quarter of 2012, growth rates were -0.2% in both zones.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU27 in the third quarter of 2012, after -0.4% and -0.3% respectively in the previous quarter.

During the third quarter of 2012, GDP increased by 0.5% in the United States compared with the previous quarter (after +0.3% in the second quarter of 2012) and fell by 0.9% in Japan (after +0.1%).

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP rose by 2.3% in the United States (after +2.1% in the previous quarter) and by 0.2% in Japan (after +3.4%)."

Could it be that the dogmatic policy of austerity, being pursued by unelected bureaucrats and vainglorious politicians, is driving the Eurozone onto the rocks?

Surely not?!

ONS Revises Its Figures Yet Again!

On July 25 I wrote the following:

"UK GDP has contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2012, thus bringing the UK into a double dip recession.

However, this figure needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, ONS figures are out of date and are invariably wrong."

In August I wrote the following:

"As predicted, it transpires that the ONS figures were of course wrong. Economia reports that the ONS has revised its figures upwards from -0.7% to -0.5%."

One month on and the hapless and hopeless Office for National Statistics (ONS) have yet again revised their figures upwards, this time to -0.4%.

As I have noted many times before it is extremely unwise to rely on figures provided by the ONS, they are always out of date and invariably wrong; eg in February this year inflation figures spiked partly because the ONS (as per usual) had been erroneously under reporting inflation (clothing) for several years, and the resulting correction caused a spike in inflation.

Instead of the government and the Bank of England relying on and using ONS figures to to try to manage the economy, they may as well rely on reading goat entrails as these would be more accurate, timely and easier to interpret!

Euro Burnout

The hapless citizens of the Eurozone who feel that they are forever condemned to a lifetime of austerity and recession until their political masters finally admit that the Euro (in its current form) is destined to fail, may be forgiven for thinking that no Eurocrat understands what they are going through.

Step forward the very empathetic folks at the ECB.

For they too are suffering from "Euroburnout".

According to Welt Online the burnout amongst ECB staff trying to cope with the Euro crisis is a "serious potential operational risk for the ECB".

The "good" news for the staff of the ECB and the citizens of the Eurozone is that 40 new jobs will be created within the ECB to address this issue.

Hoozah!

Admittedly 40 new jobs is but a gnat's piss against the millions of jobs destroyed by the Eurocrisis, but a job's a job!

The bad news is that these jobs won't be created until 2013, by which time the Euro and the Eurozone economy will have all but collapsed.

UK In Double Dip Recession

UK GDP has contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2012, thus bringing the UK into a double dip recession.

However, this figure needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, ONS figures are out of date and are invariably wrong.

Cameron's 2020 Vision - Austerity Until 2020

It appears that the world will be mired in recession until 2020.

That at least is the view of David Cameron, who says that he now expects the crisis in the eurozone to drag on for years.

When asked by The Telegraph as to whether the austerity programme would now last a decade until 2020, the Prime Minister replied:

“I think it’s going to be...this is a period for all countries, not just in Europe but I think you will see it in America too, where we have to deal with our deficits and we have to have sustainable debts. I can’t see any time soon when…the pressure will be off. 

I don’t see a time when difficult spending choices are going to go away.”

That kind of talk will not help the economy, as consumer economies are underpinned by hope/expectations of growth and prosperity.

The Eurozone Clusterfuck

Another day in the painfully slow demise of the Eurozone, and another round of depressing economic news.

Whilst the headlines boldly claim that the Eurozone has avoided recession by achieving zero growth (as opposed to a contraction), they ignore the fact that the Greek economy contracted by 6.2% in the first quarter of 2012 (according to the Hellenic Statistical Authority).

Five years of austerity have led to a 17% contraction of the Greek economy.

The "powerhouse" of the Eurozone is the German economy which managed to grow by 0.5%, thus pulling the rest of the Eurozone up by its boot straps. However, this merely highlights the sharp economic divide between members of the Eurozone. This economic divide is not sustainable in the long run, and something has to give.

Although Greece will repay fully a Euro450M bond that matures today (after failing to reach a deal with holdout investors), the Greek people and politicians are in no mood to continue with the terms of the bailout as they now stand.

Either the Eurozone renegotiates the bailout (which Germany will not do), or Greece will leave the Eurozone.