The Greek Problem - Two More Bailouts Needed

European Central Bank Governing Council member, Luc Coene, is quoted by Reuters:

"It's clear that we are not yet at the end of the Greek problem. 

We will need to make further efforts, certainly once, perhaps twice more. 

We will see how the situation develops."

My advice to Greece stands, leave the Eurozone and devalue your currency.

China's 7% Bottom Line

China's Premier, Li Keqiang, has underpinned global markets by stating that China’s “bottom line” for GDP growth is 7%, and the nation can’t let growth go below that.

Seven percent is not too shabby at all!

I would note that had a similar statement been issued by the ECB, wrt there being a bottom line for growth for the Eurozone (albeit with a bottom line of growth of far less than 7%), no one would have believed it!

Greece's Day of The Jackal Looms

Reuters reports that Greece has been given three days to reassure Europe and the International Monetary Fund it can deliver on conditions attached to its international bailout in order to receive the next tranche of aid.

Europe and the IMF are unhappy with the progress that Greece has made towards reforming its public sector and improving its tax collection.

In the event that Greece misses the deadline or its promises fail to assuage its "bankers", then as sure as eggs are eggs the "solution" that was foisted upon Cyprus (ie a raid on bank accounts) will be foisted upon Greece.

Those with money in Greek bank accounts would be advised to withdraw it now, before the jackals pounce. 

Be Bold!

Mark Carney, the incoming Bank of England Governor, has warned that Europe could face a decade of stagnation unless it takes the kind of bold measures seen in Japan.

Carney is quoted by the Telegraph, whilst making his last speech as Governor of the Bank of Canada:

“Europe can draw lessons from Japan on the dangers of half measures... Europe remains in recession. Deep challenges persist in its financial system. Without sustained and significant reforms, a decade of stagnation threatens.”

His comments give more traction to the rumours that the ECB is considering negative interest rates.

Turning Japanese

In echoes of Japan in the 1980's/90's, it seems that the ECB is going down the path of negative interest rates.

As per Financial Acrobat:

"More rumours about negative rates from ECB. Said to have contacted German bank to ask if they could cope with it. It is likely true."

I loved the 80's!

Negative Interest rates

It seems that the ECB is considering negative deposit rates, ie charging banks for their deposits.

The purpose of such a move?

To encourage/force banks to lend money in order to boost the flagging Eurozone economy.

Will it work?

No one knows!

Happy Greek Independence Day - Cyprus "Fixed"!

On this bank holiday in Cyprus, to celebrate Greek Independence Day, doubtless the good people of Cyprus are also "celebrating" the fact that the banking crisis has been "fixed" and that they will receive Euro10BN in bailout money.

The Eurozone finance ministers have agreed that Laiki (Popular) Bank will be wound down and depositors with more than Euros100K will face losses of 40% or more (Schauble's original plan). Those who have deposits of less than this amount will, theoretically, incur no immediate losses.

However, unlike the last "deal", the Cyprus parliament will not be voting on this.

It seems that, once again, the Eurozone sacrifices democracy in order to pursue its Messianic mission!

The chairman of the Cypriot parliament's finance committee, Nicholas Papadopolous, told the BBC said the agreement made "no economic sense":

"We are heading for a deep recession, high unemployment. They wanted to send a message that the Cypriot economy ought to be destroyed, and they've succeeded in a large part - they've destroyed our banking sector." 

Needless to say the banks, as it a bank holiday, remain closed. As and when they re open will be the litmus test as to whether people believe that this is "fixed".

Clearly anyone with half a brain will empty their bank account immediately, Cyprus has signed its own death warrant and is finished unless it leaves the Eurozone.

Happy Greek Independence Day!

Eurozone Pressing For Extreme Measures For Cyprus

Eurozone finance ministers are now pressing for measures that would shrink Cyprus's banking system, these measures were "ironically" rejected last week as being too extreme.

Bloomberg reports that finance ministers want to close the two biggest banks in Cyprus and freeze the assets of uninsured depositors.

Cyprus Popular Bank (CPB) and the Bank of Cyprus Plc would be split to create a bad bank.

Insured deposits (below the European Union ceiling of 100,000 euros) would go into the good bank, whilst uninsured deposits would go into the bad bank and be frozen until assets could be sold.

It is estimated (though as with all estimates this may well be wildly off the mark) that losses could be 40%.

Let's see how that goes down with the good people of Cyprus!

ECB Causes Run On Cyprus ATM's

Today's idiotic threat by the ECB has, not unsurprisingly, caused a run on ATMs in Cyprus.

Follow the situation live here:

Cyprus Issued With Ultimatum

The ECB has issued Cyprus with an ultimatum:

"Decide by Monday, or else!"

All very threatening and all that, but what then when Cyprus does not acquiesce?

The contagion will spread.

ECB To Recruit 800 More Staff

The many millions of people in the Eurozone who have been made redundant because of the policies of the ECB need fear for their futures no more, the ECB is planning to recruit more staff.

Unfortunately the ECB will only be recruiting 800 more staff, paid for out of the pockets of the hapless European taxpayers.

For why does the ECB need to increase its headcount?

In December EU finance ministers agreed to make the ECB chief supervisor for banks in the Eurozone, the deadline for full implementation of the supervisory role being March 2014, thus the ECB believes that it needs extra staff in order to fulfill its new role.

The new supervisory powers of the ECB are one further step towards full monetary union. Those who are recruited would be advised to be aware that, despite the hubris of the politicians and technocrats, the Euro experiment will end in tears, as such their roles cannot be seen as anything more than temporary.

The Troika's Stark Choice

Despite Greece's doom laden warnings that it would run out of cash by 16 November,  as at the time of writing this article it hasn't.

In other unsurprising news Eurozone finance ministers, the IMF and the ECB (aka the Troika) have failed, for the second week running, to reach an agreement as to how/whether to bail Greece out again.

The bottom line is that Greece's debt is unsustainable.

The Troika face a stark choice, either the debt is written off or Greece is written off.

Beware The Dead Cat Bounce

Markets are rising on the self delusional hopes that "this time" the ECB really will do something tangible to stop the rot, and will buy bonds willy nilly.

Be warned, this is nothing more than a dead cat bounce based on the false delusion of ECB action.

Repeat after me:

- There is no plan
- There never was a plan
- There will never be a plan

Draghi Digs Himself Out of a Hole

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will not attend the annual Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers at the end of this week the ECB said, citing a heavy workload.

Euro Burnout

The hapless citizens of the Eurozone who feel that they are forever condemned to a lifetime of austerity and recession until their political masters finally admit that the Euro (in its current form) is destined to fail, may be forgiven for thinking that no Eurocrat understands what they are going through.

Step forward the very empathetic folks at the ECB.

For they too are suffering from "Euroburnout".

According to Welt Online the burnout amongst ECB staff trying to cope with the Euro crisis is a "serious potential operational risk for the ECB".

The "good" news for the staff of the ECB and the citizens of the Eurozone is that 40 new jobs will be created within the ECB to address this issue.

Hoozah!

Admittedly 40 new jobs is but a gnat's piss against the millions of jobs destroyed by the Eurocrisis, but a job's a job!

The bad news is that these jobs won't be created until 2013, by which time the Euro and the Eurozone economy will have all but collapsed.

Greece's Bottomless Pit

The Greek Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras, will meet with various Eurozone leaders during the coming week in order to beg for more time (an extension of two years) for Greece to try to enact its austerity programme.

His renegotiation mission comes on the eve of next month's Troika report into Greece's economic progress (or lack of it).

Der Spiegel has reported that the Troika's initial assessment is that there is a Euro14BN hole in Greec's finances for 2013/14. This hole being Euro3.5BN larger than the previously identified hole of Euro11BN.

The abundance of black holes is rather alarming, given that the Troika found a Euro15BN in Greece's finances in February 2012.

Therefore will Greece be given more time and more money?

The German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, as per the BBC sums up the situation perfectly:

"I have always said that we can help the Greeks, but we cannot responsibly throw money into a bottomless pit."

The question is, at what stage do those funding Greece realise that the Greek economy is a "bottomless pit"?

Bank of England Clueless

Unfortunately, it appears that according to former MPC member Danny Blanchflower:

"The MPC didn't know where the economy had been, didn't know where it was when they made the forecast, and had no clue where it was going and still doesn't."

The  most alarming question that arises from the above is that, if the Bank of England (which has been relatively proactive in trying to reboot the economy) is so clueless, what does that say about the ECB?

Sentix Predicts 73% Chance of Euro Breakup

The sentix Euro Break-up Index for July has risen by 22% to 73%. The index mirrors the investors' perceived probability of at least one country leaving the Euro within the next twelve months.

The index predicts that there is a 97% probability that Greece will exit the Euro.

Unsurprisingly, Euro politicians (who have much to lose when the Euro collapses; eg status, ego and salaries) have been quick to panic and have been trying to talk markets up. Step forward Germany's foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, who has warned Europe's politicians "not to talk Europe apart". He is quoted in the Telegraph:

"We need a strengthening, not a weakening of democratic legitimacy in Europe." 

This is all very well, but the markets will only now believe actions not words (as even Draghi must now realise after last week's dismal showing by the ECB has proven).

ECB Does Nothing - As Predicted

As I predicted this morning, the ECB has done absolutely nothing to alleviate the crisis in the Eurozone.

As per Business Insider President Mario Draghi of the ECB failed to announce any definitive measures to address concerns about the burgeoning sovereign debt crisis in his latest post-decision press conference today.

The markets, that had foolishly deluded themselves that the ECB would act, have taken a tumble.

Here is Draghi's lengthy statement outling that the ECB will do nothing:

"Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB,
Frankfurt am Main, 
2 August 2012 

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Vice-President, Mr Rehn.

Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged, following the decrease of 25 basis points in July. As we said a month ago, inflation should decline further in the course of 2012 and be below 2% again in 2013. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area economy continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. At the same time, economic growth in the euro area remains weak, with the ongoing tensions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty weighing on confidence and sentiment. A further intensification of financial market tensions has the potential to affect the balance of risks for both growth and inflation on the downside.

The Governing Council extensively discussed the policy options to address the severe malfunctioning in the price formation process in the bond markets of euro area countries. Exceptionally high risk premia are observed in government bond prices in several countries and financial fragmentation hinders the effective working of monetary policy. Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner. The euro is irreversible.

In order to create the fundamental conditions for such risk premia to disappear, policy-makers in the euro area need to push ahead with fiscal consolidation, structural reform and European institution-building with great determination. As implementation takes time and financial markets often only adjust once success becomes clearly visible, governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist – with strict and effective conditionality in line with the established guidelines.

The adherence of governments to their commitments and the fulfilment by the EFSF/ESM of their role are necessary conditions. The Governing Council, within its mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term and in observance of its independence in determining monetary policy, may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective. In this context, the concerns of private investors about seniority will be addressed. Furthermore, the Governing Council may consider undertaking further non-standard monetary policy measures according to what is required to repair monetary policy transmission. Over the coming weeks, we will design the appropriate modalities for such policy measures.

Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. On a quarterly basis, euro area real GDP growth was flat in the first quarter of 2012, following a decline of 0.3% in the previous quarter. Economic indicators point to weak economic activity in the second quarter of 2012 and at the beginning of the third quarter, in an environment of heightened uncertainty. Looking beyond the short term, we expect the euro area economy to recover only very gradually, with growth momentum being further dampened by a number of factors. In particular, tensions in some euro area sovereign debt markets and their impact on financing conditions, the process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors and high unemployment are expected to weigh on the underlying growth momentum, which is also affected by the ongoing global slowdown.

The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. They relate, in particular, to the tensions in several euro area financial markets and their potential spillover to the euro area real economy. Downside risks also relate to possible renewed increases in energy prices over the medium term.

Euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.4% in July 2012, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, unchanged from the previous month. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates should decline further in the course of 2012 and be below 2% again in 2013. Over the policy‑relevant horizon, in an environment of modest growth in the euro area and well‑anchored long-term inflation expectations, underlying price pressures should remain moderate.

Risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be broadly balanced over the medium term. Upside risks pertain to further increases in indirect taxes, owing to the need for fiscal consolidation, and higher than expected energy prices over the medium term. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area, in particular resulting from a further intensification of financial market tensions. Such intensification has the potential to affect the balance of risks on the downside.

Turning to the monetary analysis, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remained subdued. The annual growth rate of M3 stood at 3.2% in June 2012, slightly higher than the 3.1% observed in the previous month and close to the rate observed at the end of the first quarter. Overall, inflows into broad money in the second quarter were weak. Annual growth in M1 increased further to 3.5% in June, in line with the increased preference of investors for liquid instruments in an environment of low interest rates and high uncertainty.

The annual growth rate of loans to the private sector (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) declined to 0.3% in June (from 0.5% in May). As net redemptions of loans to non-financial corporations and households (both adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) were observed in June, the annual growth rates for loans to both non‑financial corporations and households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) decreased further in June, to -0.3% and 1.1% respectively. To a large extent, subdued loan growth reflects the current cyclical situation, heightened risk aversion and the ongoing adjustment in the balance sheets of households and enterprises, all of which weigh on credit demand. A considerable contribution of demand factors to weak MFI loan growth is confirmed by the euro area bank lending survey for the second quarter of 2012. This survey also shows that the net tightening of banks’ credit standards at the euro area level was broadly stable in the second quarter of 2012, as compared with the previous quarter, for loans to both enterprises and households.
Looking ahead, it is essential for banks to continue to strengthen their resilience where this is needed. The soundness of banks’ balance sheets will be a key factor in facilitating both an appropriate provision of credit to the economy and the normalisation of all funding channels.
To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability over the medium term. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture.

While significant progress has been achieved with fiscal consolidation over recent years, further decisive and urgent steps need to be taken to improve competitiveness. From 2009 to 2011, euro area countries, on average, reduced the deficit-to-GDP ratio by 2.3 percentage points, and the primary deficit improved by about 2½ percentage points. Fiscal adjustment in the euro area is continuing in 2012, and it is indeed crucial that efforts are maintained to restore sound fiscal positions. At the same time, structural reforms are as essential as fiscal consolidation efforts and the measures to repair the financial sector. Some progress has also been made in this area. For example, unit labour costs and current account developments have started to undergo a correction process in most of the countries strongly affected by the crisis. However, further reform measures need to be implemented swiftly and decisively. Product market reforms to foster competitiveness and the creation of efficient and flexible labour markets are preconditions for the unwinding of existing imbalances and the achievement of robust, sustainable growth. It is now crucial that Member States implement their country-specific recommendations with determination."

The hostage to fortune is of course this phrase:

"The euro is irreversible."

As previous failed currency unions have shown, the Euro is reversible.

Don't Believe The ECB Hype

The markets and some commentators are trying to delude themselves that the ECB will finally do something tangible to "save" the Euro.

ECB President, Mario Draghi, has managed to con some people who should know better into believing that the ECB will conduct a major bond purchasing campaign. In theory the bond buying campaign will reduce the interest rates of Spain and Italy (note Greece is not included, because it has been thrown to the wolves) and thus save the Euro.

However, people are ignoring the two very large elephants in the room:

1 Any such decision and action to buy bonds will not occur until after 12 September, when Germany’s top court rules on the ratification of the ESM. This being over a month away means that Spain and Italy, because of crippling interest rates, will most likely have imploded by them.

2 Germany’s top court may well not ratify the ESM. Even if it does, all 17 eurozone members would need to agree to it as well. Fat chance!

Therefore, don't believe the ECB hype.

The Euro, in its present form, is finished!