£11.5BN Cuts

The chancellor is to unveil £11.5BN of cuts for 2015/16 to help reduce the deficit.

Local government is expected to be hardest hit.

Watch Osborne's speech live at 12:30 here.

House Prices Overvalued?

According to the OECD, house prices in the UK are too high.

The Telegraph reports that a study by the OECD, which compared prices with local wages and rents, suggests that British house prices are 31% too high compared to rents and 21% over-priced against incomes.

Given that housing is the bedrock of the British economy, providing a credit hungry public with the raison d'etre to borrow ever increasingly large sums of money, people would be forgiven for thinking that this analysis is grim news for the economy.

Fear not!

The British government cannot help itself when it comes to meddling in the housing market and, via its Help To Buy Scheme announced in the March Budget, has already taken actions to underpin and further stimulate the housing market.

Osborne Encounters Resistance

Poor old George Osborne appears to be encountering some resistance form other ministers to his plans to slash spending by £11.5BN.

As yet, according to the FT, his "colleagues" in government have only come up with £2.5BN in cuts; with some ministers failing to provide Osborne with the list of 10% in proposed departmental cuts he ordered before last month’s deadline.

Could it be that they don't think that he will still be in office in a year, and that as such he can "safely" be ignored?

As with any business, there will always be resistance to cuts. However, also as with any business, if the person who is demanding them is deemed to be "on his way out" the cuts will never materialise.

Budget 2013 Key Points

The Chancellor halved his growth forecast in today's Budget. All very well maybe, but no one really believes these forecasts in the first place; therefore halving a figure that no one believes in to another figure that no one believes in is a futile exercise.

Rather amusingly the Evening Standard had to apologise after it published details of the Budget online before George Osborne delivered his statement. When I was a young lad, breach of Budget purdah was a "hanging" offence; now breach of purdah is de rigueur!

Here are the key points, courtesy of the BBC:

FUEL, ALCOHOL AND CIGARETTES

September's 3p fuel duty rise scrapped
April's 3p rise in beer duty scrapped. Instead, beer duty to be cut by 1p
Annual inflation +2% rise in beer duty to be ended but "duty escalator" to remain in place for wine, cider and spirits
Cigarette duties unchanged - continuing to rise by inflation +5%

INCOME TAX

Limit at which people start paying tax to be raised to £10,000 in 2014 - a year earlier than planned

HOUSING

Shared equity schemes extended, with interest-free loans for homebuyers up to 20% of value of new-build properties

Bank guarantees to underpin £130bn of new mortgage lending for three years from 2014

STATE OF THE ECONOMY

Growth forecast for 2013 halved to 0.6% d from 1.2% in December
Office for Budget Responsibility watchdog predicts UK will escape recession this year
Growth predicted to be 1.8% in 2014; 2.3% in 2015; 2.7% in 2016 and 2.8% in 2017.

BORROWING

Borrowing of £114bn this year, up from previous £108bn forecast
Borrowing set to fall to £108bn, £97bn and £87bn, £61bn and £42bn in subsequent years
Borrowing as share of GDP to fall from 7.4% in 2013-14 to 5% in 2015-16
Debt as a share of GDP to increase from 75.9% in 2012-13 to 85.6% in 2016-17

SPENDING AND PAY

Most government departments to see budgets cut by 1% in each of next two years
Schools and NHS will be protected
£11.5bn in further cuts earmarked in 2015-16 Spending Review, up from £10bn
1% cap on public sector pay extended to 2015-16 and limits on "progression" pay rises in the sector
Military to be exempt from "progression" pay limits.
Proceeds of Libor banking fines to be given to good military causes, including Combat Stress charity

JOBS

600,000 more jobs expected this year than at same time last year
Claimant count to fall by 60,000

TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURE

An extra £15bn for new road, rail and construction projects by 2020, starting with £3bn in 2015-16

HELP FOR BUSINESS

Corporation tax to be cut by 1% to 20% in 2015
New employment allowance to cut National Insurance bills cut by £2,000 for every firm
450,000 small firms will pay no employer National Insurance
Government procurement from small firms to rise fivefold
Tax relief for investment in social enterprises
Stamp duty axed on shares traded on growth markets like Aim.
Tax avoidance and evasion measures, including agreements with Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey, aimed at recouping £3bn in unpaid taxes

ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Tax incentives for ultra low-emission cars
Pottery industry in Midlands to be exempt from climate change levy
Tax allowances for investment in shale gas

INFLATION

2% Bank of England inflation target to stay in place
Bank remit to be changed to focus on growth as well as inflation

PENSIONERS

Single flat-rate pension of £144 a week brought forward a year to 2016
Cap on social care costs confirmed

FAMILIES

20% tax relief on childcare up to £6,000 per child from 2015
£5,000 payments for those who lost money on Equitable Life policies bought before 1992. Extra money for those on low incomes

Follow The Budget Live

EU Budget Fudge Cake

It appears that the leaders of the EU may be within a whisker of agreeing the EU budget for the next seven years.

According to the BBC the next seven year EU budget (estimated at being Euro 908BN/£774BN) is more than 30BN Euros (£25.5BN) lower than the one it will replace.

There is of a course an irony for the UK, as thanks to Blair, our contributions to the EU budget are rising; it is in fact possible for UK's cash contribution to increase by between 1.3% - 1.6%.

EU Budget Round II

The EU budget negotiations resume today in Brussels, having failed last November to reach an agreement EU leaders will attempt to cobble something together that won't result in them being lynched by their voters when they return home to their respective countries.

The FT reports that Herman Van Rompuy, the European Council president, will unveil a compromise proposal somewhere around €960BN a reduction from the €972BN proposal that failed last November.

Given that Europe is wallowing in recession, thanks in no small part to the Euro crisis and the inept handling of that crisis by Eurozone finance ministers, even if a deal is agreed by the leaders of the EU the hapless citizens of the EU are the ones who will pay for it and are increasingly resentful of having to do so.

Conclusions of Forthcoming EU Summit

Here, courtesy of the FT, are the draft guidelines for the conclusions of the forthcoming European Council summit to be held on 7th and 8th of February.

At the end of the document, to be added later, is the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) ie the European budget!

Live Coverage of George Osborne's Autumn Statement

EU Budget Summit Cancelled

Unsurprisingly the EU budget summit has been cancelled.

A waste of time, effort and money (our money!).

EU Draft Budget Proposal Leaked

Courtesy of Open Europe a draft of the latest HermanVan Rompuy (HvR) proposal for the EU budget has been published.

The headline spending figure remains broadly unchanged in the new proposal, standing at €1,014BN (a €4BN increase), but more is spent on farm subsidies and structural funds, in a move designed to appease France, Poland, Italy and Spain.

Thus the budget in its present form will not pass, as the UK will veto it.

Eurozone Imploding At Alarming Pace

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit is quoted by the Telegraph as saying that the Eurozone is deteriorating at an "alarming pace".

Meanwhile the "Gnomes of Brussels" continue to demand an increase in their bloated budget.

This will not end well for the hapless citizens of the Eurozone.

Euro1.4BN EU Fraud

Bruno Waterfield has just tweeted that the EC has confirmed that 'part of' the proposed roll over of €1.4BN from 2012 to next year are funds 'under investigation'.

Which basically means there is a suspicion of fraud wrt this sum of money.

Don't you just love the EU's budgetary process and financial "controls", the stories that just keep giving.

EU Budget Qualified Again

The European Court of Auditors found that controls over 86% of the EU budget are only "partially effective", this makes the 18th year running that the budget has been qualified.

To add to this annual disgrace, it transpires that the frequency rate for "material error" rose by 8% in 2011 from 36% to 44%, with £4BN in EU payments directly affected by irregularities.

The EU's response?

They intend to increase their expenditure by £95BN over the next eight years.

Who pays for this?

The hapless citizens of the EU, who are themselves being told by their EU overlords to endure years of austerity!

The Economic Wasteland That Is The Eurozone

The September unemployment figures for the Eurozone make grim reading, for the Eurozone as whole the unemployment rate hit a record high of 11.6%.

That is a figure that is both shameful and dangerous.

However, dig deeper and it can be seen that Spain and Greece are suffering even more with rates of 25.8% and 25.1% respectively.

To add to the woes of the Greek people Greek finance Minister, Yiannis Stournaras, has submitted the 2013 budget to parliament. If the current policies of austerity, being imposed to assuage the Troika, are maintained/pursued:

-Public debt to GDP will hit 189.1%
-There will be a general government deficit of 5.2%
-There will be an economic contraction of 4.5%

It is clear that with rates of unemployment and debt at these levels democracy will be hard pressed to survive, as people will reach out for any ideology other than Eurozone austerity to save them.

Yet what does the European Commission do?

It asks for a budget increase of 5% to feed its bloated bureaucracy and those that serve it, whilst forcing the people of Greece and other Southern European states into penury.

This is a recipe for revolution.

EC Fiddles Whilst Europe Burns

Eurozone unemployment has hit a record high of 10.9% (17.3M people are now looking for work), with Greece clocking in at 21.7% and Spain at 24.1%.

The EC claims that it is taking the problem seriously, and will (by the end of May) publish "country specific recommendations".

Given that the rate of unemployment rose by 169K in the last month, this means that even if the recommendations were of any use (which of course they won't be) another 169K people will be out of work by then.

The EC's only real objective is to ensure that it obtains a budget increase of 6.8%, it is fiddling whilst Europe burns!

The EC is not fit for purpose, as the people of Europe are finding out to their cost.

Spanish Youth Unemployment Soars

As our EU overlords seek to impose further austerity measures on their subjects, whilst at the same time seeking an increase in their own budget for 2013 of 6.8%, it is worthwhile remembering that the EU financial straitjacket is having real consequences for real people.

Spanish unemployment figures have hit a record level of 5,639,500 at the end of March (24.4%), with youth unemployment at a shocking level of 52%.

The EU may care to pause and reflect on those figures for a moment, before it continues with its self destructive quest to fill its bloated coffers with a 6.8% increase in budget.

Useless Gobshites - The EC

Here are threes sets of figures:

- Total cuts in public spending in Greece: -20% (as share of GDP)
- Total cuts in government spending in Latvia: -22%
- Proposed increase in the EC’s 2013 budget: 6.8%

Notice something odd?

Yes, that's right, the body that is imposing austerity packages on EU countries is asking for an increase in the budget of the European Commission of 6.8%!

The EC has lost touch with reality, and is quite clearly a threat to stability and well being of Europe itself.

The Budget - Summary and Details

Here is a link to the details of today's Budget as per HMT:

Budget

Whilst here are the headlines of today's budget (source):

Tax changes

The personal allowance will rise to £9,205 in April 2013

• The top rate of Income Tax will reduce from 50 per cent to 45 per cent in April 2013.
• The Income Tax personal allowance (the amount you can earn before you pay tax) will increase to £9,205 in April 2013.
• Age related allowances will be frozen from April 2013, moving towards a simpler, single personal allowance for everyone regardless of age.
• From 2014-15, taxpayers will receive a new Personal Tax Statement, telling them how much Income Tax and National Insurance they have paid and what their money is being spent on.
• Income Tax reliefs that aren't already capped will be capped at £50,000 or 25 per cent of income, whichever is higher.
• The main rate of Corporation Tax will reduce by an additional 1 per cent from April 2012.

The new Income Tax rates for the 2012-13 tax year were published in December 2011 and will start on 6 April 2012.

• Budget 2012 - New Income Tax rates 2012-13

Benefits

Child Benefit will be withdrawn for households where someone has an income of more than £50,000

• Child Benefit will be withdrawn when someone in a household has an income of more than £50,000. The benefit will be withdrawn gradually; 1 per cent of Child Benefit for every extra £100 earned over £50,000. Only those with an income of more than £60,000 will lose all their Child Benefit.
• Servicemen and women serving in operations overseas will receive 100 per cent relief on an average Council Tax bill.

The new rates for the State Pension and benefits for 2012-13 were published in December. These rates start in April 2012.

• Budget 2012 - new pension and benefit rates

Alcohol and tobacco

• Duty rates for alcohol will rise on 26 March 2012 at the same rate as last year - two per cent above inflation. The government will shortly be publishing an Alcohol Strategy to address alcohol abuse.
• Duty on tobacco will rise by five per cent above inflation - a rise of 37p on a pack of cigarettes. This will come into force at 6.00 pm on 21 March 2012.

Motoring and travel

• Vehicle Excise Duty (car tax) will increase by inflation only.
• The government will take forward many of the recommendations from Alan Cook’s independent review of the road network, including developing a national roads strategy.
• The government will also consider new ownership and financing models for the national road network.

Housing

• A new Stamp Duty Land Tax rate of 7 per cent will be introduced for residential properties over £2 million from 22 March 2012.
• The Stamp Duty Land Tax charge applied to residential properties over £2 million bought into a corporate envelope will be increased to 15 per cent from 21 March 2012. There will be a consultation on the introduction of an annual charge on £2 million residential properties which are already contained in corporate envelopes.
• A New Buy Scheme was introduced last week to help those who cannot afford the larger deposits that some mortgage companies demand.
• The government will fund an extra £100 million of improvements in the accommodation of the armed forces and their families.

Pensions

• The current system, where pensioners can receive an additional State Pension as well as their basic pension, will be simplified. This means that future pensioners will receive only one single-tier pension, based on contributions. This is currently estimated at around £140.
• There will be an automatic review of the State Pension age to ensure it keeps pace with increases in life expectancy. Details of how this will work will be published this summer.
• There will be no changes to pension relief.

Employment

• The National Minimum Wage will increase by less than inflation, as recommended by the Low Pay Commission, to support employers and help protect jobs.
• Sunday trading laws will be relaxed during the Olympics and Paralympics.
• National Minimum Wage rates to rise in October

Digital economy

• The government has committed to providing 90 per cent of the population with access to superfast broadband.
• There will be improved mobile phone coverage for rural areas and along key roads.
• Belfast, Birmingham, Bradford, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Leeds, London, Manchester and Newcastle are to become broadband super-connected cities, as part of the £100 million investment announced at the 2011 Autumn Statement.
• £50 million will be used to fund a second wave of smaller cities.

The economy

The UK economy is predicted to grow by 0.8 per cent this year, and 2 per cent in 2013

• The independent Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecasts for UK growth and inflation are broadly unchanged from its November forecasts.
• Growth: its growth forecast for the UK this year is 0.8 per cent; they forecast growth of 2 per cent in 2013, 2.7 per cent in 2014, and 3 per cent in 2015 and 2016.
• Inflation: expected to fall from 2.8 per cent this year to 1.9 per cent next year, and then 2 per cent by 2016
• The OBR’s forecast for the unemployment rate is unchanged from last Autumn - the rate is expected to peak this year at 8.7 per cent and fall to 6.3 per cent by 2016.
• Borrowing: public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to total £126 billion this year, falling to £120 billion next year. It is then forecast to to fall to £98 billion in 2013-14, reaching £21 billion by 2016-17.

The Budget

Today, in case you were unaware, is Budget Day.

It is likely to be a damp squib, as most (if not all) of the headline measures/changes etc have already been leaked.

This is without doubt the most leaked budget in history.

When I was a lad people would have been flogged for leaking budget details (it is after all price sensitive information), how times change!